Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region     

YanRan Lü  Tong Jiang  YanJun Wang  BuDa Su  JinLong Huang  Hui Tao 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):389-403

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.  相似文献   

Redundant and Nonredundant Information for Model Calibration or Hydraulic Tomography     

Jet-Chau Wen  Jyun-Lin Chen  Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh  Yu-Li Wang  Shao-Yang Huang  Zhong Tian  Chia-Yii Yu 《Ground water》2020,58(1):79-92

Drawdown data from independent pumping tests have widely been used to validate the estimated hydraulic parameters from inverse modeling or hydraulic tomography (HT). Yet, the independent pumping test has not been clearly defined. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to define this independent pumping test concept, based on the redundant or nonredundant information about aquifer heterogeneity embedded in the observed heads during cross-hole pumping tests. The definition of complete, moderate redundancy and high nonredundancy of information are stipulated using cross-correlation analysis of the relationship between the head and heterogeneity. Afterward, data from numerical experiments and field sequential pumping test campaigns reinforce the concept and the definition.  相似文献   

2013—2019年度海洋科学技术奖计量统计及其科研合作网络分析          下载免费PDF全文

赵晓龙  李保石  王泉斌 《海洋开发与管理》2020,37(11):19-27

文章基于2013—2019年度海洋科学技术奖，运用计量统计、社会网络分析等研究方法，探究海洋科学技术奖获奖成果计量特征、学科分布、获奖机构及其科研合作关系等，直观揭示海洋科学技术奖所构成的科研合作范式、科研合作网络结构等，以期为海洋科研管理、科技创新和学科建设等提供科学参考。研究表明：整体上，海洋科学技术奖获奖成果呈逐年递增趋势，一等奖与二等奖的获奖等级比值呈下降趋势；学科划分上，获奖成果主要隶属于“海洋科学”学科，又以海洋生物学、海洋装备与设备、海洋化学和物理海洋学为主体；获奖机构方面，海洋科学技术奖已奖励包括中国海洋大学和中国科学院海洋研究所等涉海类高校和科研院所在内的各类海洋科技创新主体285家，分布在山东、浙江、广东、上海、北京、江苏等19个省（市、自治区）；科研合作方面，海洋科学技术奖获奖核心机构所构建的科研合作关系紧密，以自然资源部第二海洋研究所的中心度最高，中国海洋大学的中间中心度最高，其控制该科研合作网络中其他机构之间沟通交流的力度最大。  相似文献   

长江感潮河段潮波传播变化特征及影响因素分析     

黄竞争  张先毅  吴峥  刘锋  蔡华阳  杨清书 《海洋学报》2020,42(3):25-35

径潮相互作用是感潮河段水动力变化的典型特征，受其影响潮波传播具有明显的洪枯季及沿程变化。本文基于长江感潮河段天生港、江阴、镇江、南京、马鞍山及芜湖6个潮位站2002?2014年连续高低潮位资料及大通站月均流量数据，统计分析长江感潮河段潮波振幅衰减率、潮波传播速度及余水位坡度等传播特征值的洪枯季及沿程变化特征，并探讨这些潮波传播特征的变化规律及其主要影响因素。结果表明，潮波传播特征的洪枯季差异自上游至下游逐渐减小，其分界点位于天生港与江阴之间（其中，天生港和江阴站的多年平均洪枯季潮差差值约为0.01 m和?0.04 m）；径流动力对潮波衰减的影响主要位于江阴以上河段，江阴以下河段主要受潮汐动力控制；径流驱动下余水位坡度引起的余水位及水深增加，导致潮波传播的有效摩擦减小，当流量超过某个阈值时潮波振幅衰减反而减弱，特别是上游马鞍山-芜湖段最为明显，统计结果表明该河段流量阈值约为33 000 m3/s。本文分析结果作为前人研究的重要补充，可为长江河口感潮河段径潮相互作用机制研究及河口治理等提供基础参考。  相似文献   

军曹鱼（Rachycentron canadum）幼鱼对环境低氧胁迫氧化应激与能量利用指标的响应     

李洪娟  陈刚  郭志雄  王维政  黄建盛  曾泽乾 《海洋学报》2020,42(4):12-19

本文探究环境低氧对军曹鱼(Rachycentron canadum)氧化应激和能量利用指标的影响，为军曹鱼的健康养殖提供参考依据。通过设置低氧胁迫–恢复实验，将军曹鱼幼鱼(平均体质量(220.67±20.73)g)在低氧((2.64±0.25)mg/L)胁迫3 h及复氧((6.34±0.15)mg/L)8 h、24 h和48 h后，测定其肝脏和肌肉组织的氧化应激与能量利用指标。结果显示，低氧胁迫后，肝脏中丙二醛（Malondialdehyde，MDA)、过氧化氢酶(Catalase，CAT)和谷胱甘肽还原酶(Glutathione Reductase，GR)活力均显著低于对照组(p<0.05)，乳酸脱氢酶(Lactate Dehydrogenase，LDH)活性显著高于对照组(p <0.05)；肌肉中MDA和脂质过氧化物(Lipid Peroxidase，LPO)活性均显著低于对照组(p<0.05)，超氧化物歧化酶(Superoxide Dismutase，SOD)和LDH活性均显著高于对照组(p<0.05)；肌糖原和肝糖原含量极显著低于对照组(p<0.01)。复氧过程中，肝脏和肌肉中MDA、LPO、SOD、CAT、谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(Glutathione Peroxidase，GPx)和GR含量均出现不同程度的升高；肝糖原在复氧24 h后显著高于对照组(p<0.05)，复氧48 h后显著低于对照组(p<0.05)；肌糖原在复氧8 h、24 h和48 h后均显著低于对照组(p<0.05)。研究表明，低氧胁迫能够对军曹鱼幼鱼机体造成一定的氧化损伤，肝脏和肌肉组织的酶活力和能量供应发生变化；低氧胁迫后的再复氧环境，对机体造成更为强烈的氧化损伤，可通过自身生理调节逐渐恢复到正常水平。  相似文献   

2017年春夏季西北太平洋浮游植物的区域差异及其与不同水团的关系   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

林更铭  陈杨航  黄奖  王彦国  叶又茵  杨清良 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(6):107-118

The West Pacific Ocean is considered as the provenance center of global marine life and has the highest species diversity of numerous marine taxa. The phytoplankton, as the primary producer at the base of the food chain,effects on climate change, fish resources as well as the entire ecosystem. However, there are few large-scale surveys covering several currents with different hydrographic characteristics. This study aimed to explore the relationships between the spatio-temporal variation in phytoplankton community structure and different water masses. A total of 630 water samples and 90 net samples of phytoplankton were collected at 45 stations in the Northwest Pacific Ocean(21.0°–42.0°N, 118.0°–156.0°E) during spring and summer 2017. A total of 281 phytoplankton taxa(5 μm) belonging to 61 genera were identified in the study area. The distribution pattern of the phytoplankton community differed significantly both spatially and temporally. The average abundances of phytoplankton in spring and summer were 797.07×10~2 cells/L and 84.94×10~2 cells/L, respectively. Whether in spring or summer, the maximum abundance always appeared in the northern transition region affected by the Oyashio Current, where nutrients were abundant and diatoms dominated the phytoplankton community;whereas the phytoplankton abundance was very low in the oligotrophic Kuroshio region, and the proportion of dinoflagellates in total abundance increased significantly. The horizontal distribution of phytoplankton abundance increased from low to high latitudes, which was consistent with the trend of nutrient distributions, but contrary to that of water temperature and salinity. In the northern area affected by the Oyashio Current, the phytoplankton abundance was mainly concentrated in the upper 30 m of water column, while the maximum abundance often occurred at depths of 50–75 m in the south-central area affected by the Kuroshio Current.Pearson correlation and redundancy analysis(RDA) showed that phytoplankton abundance was significant negatively correlated with temperature and salinity, but positively correlated with nutrient concentration. The phytoplankton community structure was mainly determined by nutrient availability, especially the N:P ratio.  相似文献   

Three new species of Anthomedusae(Hydrozoa:Hydroidomedusa) from the Guangdong coastal water,China     

张才学  黄加祺  孙省利  柯盛  杨国欢  宋之光  刘耀谦 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(4):84-88

The samples of Anthomedusae were collected from the Guangdong coastal water,China.Three new species of Anthomedusae,i.e.Zhangiella condensum Huang,Zhang et Sun,sp.nov.,Hydractinia leizhouensis Huang,Zhang et Yang,sp.nov.,and Cladosarsia simplex Huang,Zhang et Ke,sp.nov.are described.All type specimens are deposited in College of Ocean and Earth Sciences,Xiamen University.  相似文献   

南海北部底层沉积物捕获器中海雪和生物粪粒组成及来源探究     

高萌  黄宝琦  刘志飞  赵玉龙  张艳伟 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(3):141-147

Sediment traps are an important tool for studying the source, composition and sedimentation processes of sinking particulate matter in the ocean. An in situ observational mooring(TJ-A-1) is located in the northern South China Sea(20.05°N, 117.42°E) at a water depth of 2 100 m and equipped with two sediment traps deployed at 500 m and 1 950 m. Samples were collected at 18-day intervals, and 20 samples were obtained at both depths from May 2014 to May 2015. Large amounts of fecal matter and marine snow were collected in the lower trap. The fluxes of marine snow and fecal pellets exhibited a fluctuating decrease between May 2014 and early August 2014 and then stabilized at a relatively low level. Scanning electron microscopy observations revealed that the main components of the marine snow and fecal pellets were diatoms, coccolithophores, radiolarians, and other debris, all of which are planktons mostly produced in photic zone. Used in conjunction with the particle collection range estimates from the lower trap and data on ocean surface chlorophyll, these marine snow and fecal pellets were related to the lateral transport of deep water and not vertical migrations from overlying water column. Moreover, the source area might be southwest of Taiwan.  相似文献   

Nitrogen fixation driven by mesoscale eddies and the Kuroshio Current in the northern South China Sea and the East China Sea     

Liuyang Li  Chao Wu  Jun Sun  Shuqun Song  Changling Ding  Danyue Huang  Laxman Pujari 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(12):30-41

N₂ fixation rates (NFR, in terms of N) in the northern South China Sea (nSCS) and the East China Sea (ECS) were measured using the acetylene reduction assay in summer and winter, 2009. NFR of the surface water ranged from 1.14 nmol/(L·d) to 10.40 nmol/(L·d) (average at (4.89±3.46) nmol/(L·d), n=11) in summer and 0.74 nmol/(L·d) to 29.45 nmol/(L·d) (average at (7.81±8.50) nmol/(L·d), n=15) in winter. Significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity emerged in our study: the anticyclonic eddies (AE) (P<0.01) and the Kuroshio Current (KC) (P<0.05) performed significantly higher NFR than that in the cyclonic eddies or no-eddy area (CEONE), indicating NFR was profoundly influenced by the physical process of the Kuroshio and mesoscale eddies. The depth-integrated N₂ fixation rates (INF, in terms of N) ranged from 52.4 μmol/(m2·d) to 905.2 μmol/(m2·d) (average at (428.9±305.5) μmol/(m2·d), n=15) in the winter. The contribution of surface NFR to primary production (PP) ranged from 1.7% to 18.5% in the summer, and the mean contribution of INF to new primary production (NPP) in the nSCS and ECS were estimated to be 11.0% and 36.7% in the winter. The contribution of INF to NPP (3.0%–93.9%) also decreased from oligotrophic sea toward the eutrophic waters affected by runoffs or the CEONE. Furthermore, we observed higher contributions compared to previous studies, revealing the vital roles of nitrogen fixation in sustaining the carbon pump of the nSCS and ECS.  相似文献   

可见光波段灰度熵和热红外亮温差的沙尘遥感判识   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李彬  卢士庆  孙小龙  高健  孟翔晨  赵悦晨  吕迪波 《遥感学报》2018,22(4):647-657

沙尘作为对流层气溶胶的主要成分,对气候系统有许多影响;同时,作为环境污染物,对人类健康危害也很大。沙尘天气一般在春季爆发,对中国北方大部分区域的生产和生活有较大影响。以往针对沙尘遥感监测人们开展了许多研究,取得了一定的效果。但对于一些云和沙尘混合的复杂状况,传统方法识别效果较差,几乎不能有效识别出沙尘。采用葵花8号(Himawari-8)卫星数据,提出一种针对性的识别方法。引入了0.46μm和0.51μm反射率差值RDI,统计发现该指数在一定范围内可以表现出沙尘连续性特征,并有效地将中高云和大部分地表与沙尘区分开来。碎积云的RDI值分布与沙尘的较为相似,为此进一步引入了灰度熵方法来滤除。例举了3次沙尘过程的判识结果,并结合地面观测数据进行了验证。其中对2017年5月4日沙尘的地面验证表明,位于云沙混合区的27个站中有22个站的地面观测与判识相一致。对于一些复杂条件下的沙尘,该方法是对分裂窗亮温差的有效补充。  相似文献